- Dag Kilen/Frode Morkedal downgrade D/S Norden to REDUCE (from add).  Target is unchanged from DKK 234.  “…currently trading at…fair value.”
- Dag Kilen/Frode Morkedal maintain BUY on Torm ($15)
- Martin Korsvold maintains HOLD on Torm (DKK 55).
- Anders Karlsen maintains BUY on Independent Tankers and raises target to $1.21 (from $0.95).

Omar provides container stats:  Inbound container volume at the Port of Long Beach was up near 39% y/y in February. Throughput of 207,920 TEU was up sharply from the February 2009 level of 149,230, the weakest month of last year. Daily inbound throughput of 7,420 TEU is also up from the January volume of 7,030 TEU. Container throughput has been steadily improving since midway through last year, with December 2009 inbound volume showing the first y/y gains since May of 2008

Physical:  The steady drumbeat of demand grows louder.  The March fixture/bbl count for the AG and Wafr have both pushed into triple digits – helping explain the ws 90 reported yesterday for AG/East.  Though this particular fixture was said to be a replacement gig – these numbers soon become accepted as “the market” when things are moving.  Reports of a Frontline vessel being offered at 110 quickly made the rounds – thereby supporting Owners sentiment…”just in case” there may have been an Owner not willing to hold the line.  That’s why FRO consistently rates “Alpha Male” status.  Though the ws 90 seems a bit stretched – we need to see exactly where “next done” falls into place before we continue assuming that rate gains have ended.  What if, we need to ask, the fixture/bbl counts are going to be triple digits for the foreseeable future and beyond?

Crude FFAs:  Light volume.  TD3 March trades flat at 86 while April remain priced closed to yesterday’s closing level of 80.

Clean
37kt Cont/ta          170     ($10k)    firmer
38kt Caribs/up       167     ($10k)    firmer
55kt Ag/East         127      ($10k)  about same

Physical:   Cont/ta rates have moved up a few points – thereby supporting, to some extent – the rise in FFA prices we saw yesterday.  Though activity isn’t great (mogas arb closed) – its better.  Usg distillate exports to S and C America are absorbing some tonnage and providing support.  Eastern routes are firm/steady for the most part.

Clean FFAs:   Minimal TC2 volume.  We see wide bis/asks spreads on TC2 – though implied mid points suggests prices remain near closing levels….March at 171 and April 168/170 or so.  TC6 Q3 trades down 1 point to 150.  TC4 Q3 trades flat at 146 on fair volume. TC5 March trades down 1 point to 127 on very good volume.

Well now,

I remember my excitement when a company with the symbol BULK made the same announcement.  This may be worth a Ski point or two, and I will post on the matter this weekend.

Good Fortunes

Physical:  We still see a good fixing pace – though we also note diverging fortunes between asset classes / basins.  Vs in the Ag continue to push to the upside on steady inquiry.  A few days back I had written that the presence of seemingly unabated demand should have brought some form of rate surge – and the lack of any such surge created doubts, in my mind, that rates could move further north.  Now we see that rate increases are indeed in our midst. Mea culpa (though I still think the fixture/bbl count is a bit above the norm – implying inquiry should slow at some point).  In the Atlantic basin, however, a healthy inquiry slate has not helped SMs in the same manner – as rates/sentiment there continues to slide for the 130kt lifters.

Robert MacKenzie:  We expect a strong tanker market in 2010. We believe the strong rate environment during January exemplifies the underlying strength growing in the tanker market. A recovering global economy, coupled with contained fleet supply growth, should provide a rising year-over-year trend. The IEA forecasts oil demand to recover in 2010, and a higher degree of seaborne oil transports further augments that recovery. Fleet growth will persist, but cancellations, delays, and the single-hull phaseout should help to somewhat alleviate the negative effects of the new builds

Crude FFAs:   Very good volume as prices rise on a still-firm physical market.  TD3 March trades up 2 points to 86, which is a big move considering the MTD value is only 79.  April, a better mathematical gauge at this point, is up 5 points to 80 (though is currently offered out at that same level).  Further down the curve we see Q3 gain 1.5 points to about 70.

Clean
37kt Cont/ta          165     ($9.5k)    about same
38kt Caribs/up       165     ($9.5k)    about same
55kt Ag/East         127      ($10k)     about same, possibly touch firmer     

Physical:   The Atlantic basin is mostly unchanged as we see Cont/ta earnings on par with Caribs/Usac.  We do hear of decent demand for Usg distillates direction Central and S America.

Clean FFAs:   Very good volume on TC2 with higher prices.  Q2/Q3/Q4 all trade up a few points each to 161/159/163.  Eastern volumes have been good as well.  TC4 and TC5 April trade about flat at 140 and 128.