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Wednesday
Sep212016

Dry Bulk - FFA Report - Stay Positive!!!

Tone:  Capes on fire again up over 10% on nearby Oct hitting new highs on Sept oct and q4…good volume throughout.  Panamax and smax both better as well with buyers willing last done across the curve

Capes Index $13306: Sept 10100 +400 Oct 12100 +1000  Nov 10650 +550 Q4 10450 +700  Q1 4400 +100 Cal17 7700 +100  Cal18 9150 +50 Cal19 10500 unch

Panamax Index $5264: Sept 5450 +100 Oct 6750 +200 Nov 6950 +150 Q4 6800 +200 Q1 4800 +50 Cal17 5950 +100 Cal18 6800 +50  Cal19 7450 +50

Smax Index $6904: Sept 7100 +50 Oct 7350 +250  Nov 7300 +100 Q4 7200 +100  Q1 5000 +50  Cal17 6000 +50 Cal18 7000 unch  Cal19 7500 unch

Tuesday
Sep202016

$SFL Ship Finance International

Ship Finance International SFL 
2016-09-20 4:35 PM
 
Previous comments on SFL (Jul 15th) were optimistic for a 14.75 - 15.50 target, and that price area was reached by mid to late August. Since then, we’ve seen some shenanigans that may be calming down a little. 15.25 or thereabouts may be a decent target, but recent weakness will force us to monitor the 14.25 area for downward slides.

Monday
Sep192016

Cape FFAs - Not a bad day

With physical up more than $1,000/day for Capes - FFAs moved up accordingly.

+++

From FIS:

Tone:    Capes flat in afternoon trading with levels off a touch (-100).  Panamax and smax similar with sellers on both willing last done.

Capes Index $10893: Sept 9750 +100 +450/day  Oct 11650 +150 +850/day  Q4 10250 unch +500/day Q1 4500 unch +200/day Cal17 7600 unch +100/day Cal18 9100 unch unch/day Cal19 10550 unch unch/day

Panamax Index $5208: Sept 5400 -50 unch/day Oct 6750 -50 +250/day Q4 6700 -50 +50/day Q1 4850 -50 +50/day Cal17 5850 unch +100/day Cal18 6750 unch +100/day Cal19 7400 unch unch/day

Smax Index $6916: Sept 7000 -100 unch/day Oct 7250 +50 +300/day Q4 7200 unch +300/day Q1 5000 +50 +50/day Cal17 6000 +50 +100/day Cal18 7000 unch +50/day Cal19 7500 unch unch/day

Friday
Sep162016

If you like shipping cycles...

…you might really like the below chart.  It is from Clarksons Shipbuilding Monthly.  The article it comes with mentions some interesting statistics - one of which is that roughly 240 active yards will deliver their last vessel within the end of 2017. Meaning - unless they start getting more orders soon - they will likely “sleep with the fishes.”

Thursday
Sep152016

Dry Bulk FFAs - Moving to the Upside Again

From THE source in dry FFAs - FIS:

Tone:   Capes continued firmer post index and into the close with Oct printing high of 10k before drawing in more selling and q4 up to 9250.  Panamax and smax both quiet in afternoon but levels better across the curve

Capes Index $8380: Sept 8700 +300 +950/day Oct 9900 +300 +1350/day  Q4 9200 +200 +850/day  Q1 4300 unch +250/day  Cal17 7600 +100 +350/day Cal18 9100 +100 +200/day Cal19 10550 +50 +150/day

Panamax Index $5173: Sept 5450 +150 +150/day Oct 6500 +250 +300/day  Q4 6550 +100 +200/day Q1 4800 +50 +100/day Cal17 5750 unch +50/day Cal18 6650 unch +50/day Cal19 7400 unch +100/day

Smax Index $6917: Sept 6950 +50 +50/day Oct 6900 +200 +200/day Q4 6900 +200 +200/day Q1 4950 +100 +150/day Cal17 5900 +50 +50/day Cal18 6950 +50 +50/day Cal19 7500 +50 +50/day

Wednesday
Sep142016

Dry Bulk FFAs

With the Cape index dropping more than 1,000 - no surprise to see FFAs sell off.  Below from FIS:

+++

Tone:   Capes much weaker again dropping over 10% on nearby Sept through q4.  Panamax  and Smax both slightly weaker across with a bit more aggressive selling on smax. 

Capes Index $9209: Sept 7700 -900 Oct 8250 -950 Q4 8250 -650 Q1 4050 -150 Cal17 7250 -150 Cal18 8900 -100 Cal19 10400 -100

Panamax Index $5287: Sept 5300 -100 Oct 6200 -200 Q4 6350 -50 Q1 4700 -50  Cal17 5700 unch Cal18 6600 unch Cal19 7300 unch

Smax Index $7119: Sept 6900 unch Oct 6700 -150 Q4 6700 -150 Q1 4800 -150 Cal17 5850 -50  Cal18 6900 unch Cal19 7450 unch

Tuesday
Sep132016

Clean MRs - Atlantic Basin

TC14 FFAs had a decent run today on chatter about temporary delays in the Colonial Pipeline system.  The thought being - if the pipeline cannot handle it’s full slate of refined products made in the USG region - this product will need to move by ship.

A flurry of activity in the shipping market was reported - and FFAs moved accordingly.  Sept-Oct were roughly priced at 54 yesterday - and today they jumped to about 64 before settling closer to 60.  The physical only moved from 52 to 54, but - that number prints early - so tomorrow could easily show more gains on the physical.  

That said - if existing sentiment felt the delay were going to be prolongued - the FFA [price would have moved higher and stayed their.

Anyway - we will see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday
Sep132016

$CPLP Capital Product Partners

 

As I work up more tech analyses, my commentaries will be more coherent. For the moment, here’s a short timeline of my recent thoughts on $CPLP. I hold no position or interest in CPLP.

2016-09-12 10:41 AM CPLP

As expected, CPLP has hung around in the general zone of 3.50 -3.75 range as previously mentioned. 
It remains to be seen how the recent weakness in medium-range tanker rates maintains this range. 

———————————

2016-07-22 3:06 PM CPLP
 
At last time of writing (Jun 15),  $CPLP announced charter rate reductions on several vessels  
as part of the Hyundai (HMM) restructuring. The effect has been profound, of course and we may see a heavier consolidation of support in the 3.15 - 3.25 area. Any further upward motion, say 4.00 or more,  could see that support pegging around 3.50 - 3.75.

———————————-

2016-07-15 10:10 PM CPLP 
 
Observations remained unchanged as CPLP ground its way up to the 3.15 area this past week.  
This is a pretty tight range to be offering opinions on, but at least some confirmation of previous  
ideas was seen. 

———————————-

2016-07-09 11:21 AM CPLP 
 
It would appear CPLP is building some support around the 2.80 mark, but previous rests and/or pullbacks have not borne out any reason for longer-term bullish thinking, reflecting the market as a whole, of course. However, the climb to the 3.00 region around June could give some staying power at that price. 


 

 

 
 

Friday
Sep092016

Todays FFA Report - Dry Bulk

Tone:  Capes up early but once again some profit taking just after the index leaves us basically unchanged across the curve.  Panamax and Smax light trading with levels supported at last done.  

Capes Index $9123: Sept 9300 +350 Oct 10200 unch Q4 9600 unch Q1 4300 unch Cal17 7500 +50 Cal18 9100 +50 Cal19 10550 unch

Panamax Index $5253: Sept 5700 +100 Oct 6800 +100 Q4 6800 +50 Q1 5000 +75 Cal17 5800 +25 Cal18 6700 unch Cal19 7350 unch

Smax Index $7251: Sept 7200 unch Oct 7250 unch Q4 7100 unch Q1 5025 unch Cal17 5925 unch Cal18 6975 unch Cal19 7500 unch

Friday
Sep092016

TNP

TNP released results today in line with consensus.

Noah Parquette at JPM - BUY
Mike Webber at Wells Fargo - OUTPERFORM
Ben Nolan at Stifel - BUY