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Tuesday
Oct112016

Tankers - Magnus Fyhr at SGS

Magns issued a note this morning, “Tanker update - reducing EPS estimates on spot market weakness”.

He maintains following ratings:

BUY: ASC DHT EURN GNRT HAFNIA STNG TIL TNK TNP

Neutral: FRO NAT

Lowers price targets on:

TNP - to $7.50 from 8.00
DHT - to $6.00 from 6.50 

Monday
Oct102016

Dry Bulk FFAs

Tone: Afternoon session not much different than morning…supported but little to no volume on all fronts

Capes Index $14013: Oct 12900 unch +200/day Nov 10900 -100 +100/day Q4 10800 -50 +100/day Q1 4750 unch +50/day Cal17 7850 +50 +50/day Cal18 9200 unch unch/day Cal19 10500 unch unch/day

Panamax Index $5839: Oct 6250 -100 unch/day Nov 7000 +100 +150/day Q4 6550 unch +100/day Q1 4950 unch unch/day Cal17 5950 unch unch/day Cal18 6850 unch unch/day Cal19 7350 unch unch/day

Smax Index $7076:Oct 7250 -50 -50/day Nov 7250 -50 -50/day Q4 7100 -100 -100/day Q1 5150 unch unch/day Cal17 6150 -50 -50/day Cal18 7000 unch/day  Cal19 7500 unch unch/day

 

Sunday
Oct092016

$EURN - Euronav NV

EURN Euronav
2016-10-09 8:27 PM
 
Some technical hints around the Sep 29/Oct 3 weekend proved out over the course of
last week. By Thursday, the run upwards in the EURN stock price was a good attempt at the 8.50 mark we     were eyeing.
However, a little softness in the price was seen by Friday. There may be some upward steam left in this move, although this may be a chance to build a region of price support instead. Just in case, once again we have our eye on 8.50 given recent strength.

 

 

 

Thursday
Oct062016

Dry Bulk FFA

Capes surged early on the strong index - but gave back gains after that point.  Below from FIS:

Tone:  Capes slight pull back on some pre-weekend profit taking with Oct trading down to 12800 but volume was very thin in afternoon.  Panamax and smax both trading better in afternoon 

Capes Index $13831: Oct 12800 -300 +650/day Nov 10900 -350 +300/day Q4 11000 unch +600/day Q1 4700 unch +150/day Cal17 7750 -100 +50/day Cal18 9200 unch +50/day Cal19 10500 unch unch/day

Panamax Index $5645: Oct 6250 +50 +100/day Nov 6850 +100 +200/day Q4 6450 +100 +150/day Q1 4950 +50 +150/day Cal17 5950 unch +50/day Cal18 6850 unch +50/day Cal19 7350 unch -100/day 

Smax Index $7090:Oct 7350 unch +50/day Nov 7300 unch +100/day Q4 7200 unch +50/day Q1 5150 +50 +100/day  Cal17 6200 +100 +150/day Cal18 7000 +50 +100/day Cal19 7500 unch unch/day

Wednesday
Oct052016

Dry FFAs

From FIS:

Tone:  Capes much better bid from the start with Oct trading up over 10% and well bid across the curve. Panamax touch better while smax little change

Capes Index $12017: Oct 12300 +1000 Nov 10600 +500 Q4 10500 +500 Q1 4600 +150 Cal17 7700 +200 Cal18 9150 unch  Cal19 10500 +50

Panamax Index $5647: Oct 6200 unch Nov 6700 +50 Q4 6300 +50 Q1 4800 +50  Cal17 5950 +100  Cal18 6850 +50 Cal19 7450 unch

Smax Index $7121:Oct 7300 unch Nov 7200 unch Q4 7150 +50  Q1 5050 unch Cal17 6050 unch  Cal18 6900 unch Cal19 7500 unch

Tuesday
Oct042016

Dry FFA Report from FIS

Tone:    Capes much better this morning lead by rumoured better physical…Panamax flat while Smax touch better

Capes Index $11564: Oct 10900 +600 Nov 9700 +350  Q4 9650 +400 Q1 4400 +50 Cal17 7450 unch Cal18 9100 unch Cal19 10400 unch

Panamax Index $5715: Oct 6200 +50 Nov 6500 unch Q4 6250 +50 Q1 4750 +50 Cal17 5800 +50 Cal18 6800 +50 Cal19 7450 +50

Smax Index $7116:Oct 7300 +300 Nov 7200 +50 Q4 7100 +100 Q1 5050 unch Cal17 6000 unch Cal18 6900 unch Cal19 7500 unch

Monday
Oct032016

What of Technical Analysis?

 
Warning: The occasional nautical term and/or possible Star Trek reference may crop up in the following.

What of Technical Analysis?

Good question. What do we make of these seemingly incomprehensible lines, doodles, patterns, and downright baffling comments we see, regarding what might happen next? Where is this futures contract going? What possible motive can there be for thinking this or that stock might take a jump or a dive? You can get an idea of the goings-on just by observing patterns? Really?

Maybe. Sometimes. Possibly.

For myself, I use technical analysis because it’s my comfort zone. What comfort zone is that? Maybe it’s from my background, which has been taking care of large mechanical objects; listening to, watching and identifying the knocks, rumbles and visual clues that might indicate good or bad things in the offing. Ship engines, mining machinery, that annoying rattle in the back of my fridge. Standard analysis language doesn’t always make me sit up and say, “Hey, that’s right on the money, I’m buying in!” Me? I don’t dismiss fundamentals or other analysis out-of-hand at all; I just have to get the charts out and begin watching and identifying.

When I post a diagram, more often than not, you will see a standard un-adorned candlestick chart. For the purposes of blog posting, I use these as illustrations. You are probably familiar with them; candlestick charts are wonderful things, originating in Japanese exchanges around the 18th or 19th centuries and popularized in the West about twenty-five years ago by Steve Nison. Until I got all computerized n’stuff, I drew candlesticks by hand on graph paper. Stop rolling your eyes at me.

Rather than being a complete candlestick nerd however, I use them as a foundation (as many others do) for a small methodology that incorporates a few other technical indicators. I also add some pixie-dust and chicken-bone rattling of my own, of course.

All that said, the myriad technical indicators out there can’t be blindly followed.  “What?” you say, ”but…..” No buts. Captain, we are messing with forces we cannot possibly comprehend. We go for our own interpretation of what we see and hear. If you clog your screen with a host of technical indicators, all becomes gibberish in short order. You have to study them and see what works for you; see what speaks to you.

This can involve a lot of trial and error until you start noticing things. What things, you ask? Things; signs that make sense to your train of thought, testing them and all the while keeping a weather eye on what the fundamentals are. ( and what those smart analysts are saying.) In time, as a trader friend of mine once said, you will become a master of time and space……….. (I could have used a David Carradine/Kung Fu reference there, but I didn’t)

 

Thursday
Sep292016

Dry Bulk

Cape rates were down about 800 to the $12-13k/day range.  The Q4 FFA was unchanged on the day at $9000.

Thursday
Sep292016

OPEC Cut

Greg Lewis weighs in on the OPEC cut in today’s note.  He estimates the volumes discussed amount to about 20 VLCCs - or 3% of the V fleet. He points to spot players DHT, FRO and TNK as being the most vulnerable, but his note is not one of armageddon.  More along the lines of these volumes hurting at the margin - maybe a bit more than that. He also points out that “only time will tell on a production freeze or cut” and adds Iran may be able to increase on the fringes to offset production declines by other members.

Jonathan Chappell also spoke to the issue in yesterday’s note “OPEC remains important, but it’s not what it used to be.” He points out many issues including timing and duration and compliance need to be factored in and summarizes, “…it seems most likely to us that there will be little impact to VLCC demand and rates in 2017 barring an unfavorable change in global macroeconomic health.”

Wednesday
Sep282016

Dry Bulk

FFA report from FIS:

Tone:   Capes & Panamax both took another hit in afternoon with Oct printing just above 10k and q4 taking out support at 9k.  Smax light volume and touch wekaer

Capes Index $13082: Oct 10100 -300 -900/day  Nov 9100 -200 -500/day Q4 9000 -250 -650/day Q1 4350 unch -50/day Cal17 7500 unch -100/day Cal18 9100 unch -50/day Cal19 10400 unch -100/day

Panamax Index $6017: Oct 6150 -250 -450/day Nov 6500 -200 -350/day Q4 6250 -150 -350/day Q1 4800 -50 -100/day Cal17 5850 -50 -150/day Cal18 6750 unch -100/day Cal19 7350 unch -50/day

Smax Index $7062:Oct 7100 -100 -200/day Nov 7300 -50 -200/day Q4 7050 -50 -200/day Q1 5000 -150 -250/day Cal17 5950 unch -150/day Cal18 6900 -100 -100/day Cal19 7500  unch unch/day