Dry Bulk

Baltic Indices
BDI       2835 up 94     
BCI       3900 up 257
BPI       3032 up 77
BSI       1998 down 31
BHSI     1067 down 3
Dag Kilen / Frode Morkdedahl, Platou Markets Shipping Weekly: Seasonality expected to be seen also this year…. The Northern Hemisphere grains season is currently rolling and following the export ban of grains from Russia, focus is on an expected increase in U.S exports. This is expected to increase sailing distances but as the USDA is forecasting a drop in traded volumes, this is expected to more or less counter balance the expected distance increase. However, with the harvesting season here it will still mean higher volumes than seen through July and August, meaning the delta is positive. The same we expect to be the case on coal. Even though China as one of the main consumers of seaborne traded coal appears to have high inventories at the moment, a seasonal increase in consumption is expected to give a positive delta on traded volumes. In addition, India, another important consumer of seaborne trade coal, may increase its volumes significantly as stocks are believed to be moderate. The near term risk could be a standoff in iron ore trading until next quarter‟s prices have been agreed. Unless Chinese steel mills settle at the levels rumoured (down 10-11% from current quarter), volumes could stall for a period. Steel production may however see renewed momentum towards year end as lower prices on steel making ingredients would improve steel mill margins. Seasonality wise it may be too early to buy drybulk stocks, but if the equity markets sees improving sentiment drybulk stocks may start to rally now as most of the names already reflect 10-30% lower asset values.

Dry Bulk FFAs – good volume
            Spot                             Q4 FFA
Cape     38939 up 3007               35500 down 750
PM       24384 up 627                 288250 down 250
SM       20897 down 316             24500 down 250

Comments

[F Duckling]

Stumbled across this blog today... very strange to see someone regularly posting about FFA's on the net... very niche. We share a common interest, I will be reading in future.