Ton Mile Trader

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Crude
VLCC Ag/East       90       ($51k)   strong steady demand, ws 90 done on a replacement
SM Wafr/Usac      102     ($25k)   about same, maybe softer
AG March             102        up 6
AG April              4          up 2
Wafr March          101m        up 4
Wafr April             10m         same
Turkish Straits      2n/2s     same
Fujairah bunkers   475        same

Physical:  The steady drumbeat of demand grows louder.  The March fixture/bbl count for the AG and Wafr have both pushed into triple digits – helping explain the ws 90 reported yesterday for AG/East.  Though this particular fixture was said to be a replacement gig – these numbers soon become accepted as “the market” when things are moving.  Reports of a Frontline vessel being offered at 110 quickly made the rounds – thereby supporting Owners sentiment…”just in case” there may have been an Owner not willing to hold the line.  That’s why FRO consistently rates “Alpha Male” status.  Though the ws 90 seems a bit stretched – we need to see exactly where “next done” falls into place before we continue assuming that rate gains have ended.  What if, we need to ask, the fixture/bbl counts are going to be triple digits for the foreseeable future and beyond?

Crude FFAs:  Light volume.  TD3 March trades flat at 86 while April remain priced closed to yesterday’s closing level of 80.

Clean
37kt Cont/ta          170     ($10k)    firmer
38kt Caribs/up       167     ($10k)    firmer
55kt Ag/East         127      ($10k)  about same

Physical:   Cont/ta rates have moved up a few points – thereby supporting, to some extent – the rise in FFA prices we saw yesterday.  Though activity isn’t great (mogas arb closed) – its better.  Usg distillate exports to S and C America are absorbing some tonnage and providing support.  Eastern routes are firm/steady for the most part.

Clean FFAs:   Minimal TC2 volume.  We see wide bis/asks spreads on TC2 – though implied mid points suggests prices remain near closing levels….March at 171 and April 168/170 or so.  TC6 Q3 trades down 1 point to 150.  TC4 Q3 trades flat at 146 on fair volume. TC5 March trades down 1 point to 127 on very good volume.