Tankers - Comment and Feedback
Tue, February 16, 2010 at 08:53 The 83% "on time delivery" pace for tankers is an important stat - but we need to keep in mind any ship that is simply delayed (and not canceled) will be delivered at some point. In this respect, the market is simply "kicking the can down the road." Cancelations provide a fuller upside for Owners. Numbers are hard to come by - and even harder to confirm - so at this stage - I view this issue in generice terms:
1 - cancelations are more likely to occur the further out you look into the orderbook. Financing is mostly in place for the 2010 fleet - and the large majority of these ships have already started construction. 2011-2012 is another matter - and that is where you could expect to see more cancelations.
2 - the fact that the tanker market has held up fairly well, all things considered, will lead to fewer cancelations. Also note global sentiment and forward GDP forecasts are significantly higher than one year ago - thereby improving the chances that somehow financing will be found.
3 - there are still yard slots available for 2012. If OPEC production roars back and rates show sustainable resilience - you will see more orders. If however, rates head down towards opex - ordering will be minimal. (And if ordering remains minimal, shipyards may have to offer increasingly competitive prices - which is an additional and lengthy conversation.)
With all that said - if I truly had the answer the answer to where this is headed - I would be blogging from my yacht and not my cubicle.
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I know the market is very hard to read at the moment. The question is how many of the orders are likely to hit the water? Im sure this is at least below 90% of the orderbook, but it might even be 70-80% or even less. Many of the yards are unexperienced and many orders still lack financing.
This must be one of the key elements in my opinion.
Reader Comments (1)
ya it looks real good keep up the good work and updates