Ton Mile Trader

Crude
VLCC Ag/East  50     ($33k)  possibly softer
SM Wafr/Usac  62.5   ($19k) softer

Nothing too new on the V front. The July tally is up to 48 – placing us at about the 50% mark for the month. Position lists appear to favor Charterers going forward – though not by enough to minimize their efforts to keep rates where they are. The Atlantic basin has softened further as ample SM positions vie for fewer July cgos. If July volumes ex Wafr amount to the March-April-May average of about 94m bbls, then we are almost done...a bad sign for Owners. If, however, we end up seeing 117m bbls, as we did in June, then Owners will of course have decent leverage in fighting for better rates.

Crude FFAs have been quiet. TD3 July is now offered at yesterdays closing of 51, implying a next done at the 49/50 level, a few points below spot.


Clean
37kt Cont/ta    105  ($7k)   about same
38kt Cribs/up   80  ($1.5k)  about same
55kt Ag/East   95  ($13k)  about same

Not much has changed from yesterday. Fixing activity can be found, though not to the extent that rates are facing upward pressure. Eastern clean remains somewhat steady.

TC2 July has been quiet, though we did see July trade a 105, down 3 points, and then offered over at the same level. Crystal ballers therefore expect rates to remain about where they are for the next few weeks. Eastern FFAs have seen good volumes, though TC4 and TC5 lose 2-3 points each on the Q3 to 92 and 101.

EIA Estimates from Reuters Poll:
Crude -2.0
Mogas + 1.9
Dist + 1.5