Ton Mile Trader

Dry Bulk
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BDI      8637          down 134
BCI      13417        down 162
BPI       7754        down 215
BSI       5155        down 70
BHSI    2642          down 1

Though we occasionally see reports commenting that the bottom might be at hand and that Owners confidence might soon return, rates continue to come off. The Panamax sector has been the recipient of most of the vitriol.

Comments below from the roving Commodore:

The Colombia coal miner's strike is over. This news hasn't helped the Panamax physical market, and charterers here (Asia) still expect freight levels to come down and think a rebound is "impossible" until mid- August. That's a pretty bold statement but apparently there is a ton of spot tonnage available. Supramaxes are being hurt by the oil spill / cargo disruption in the Mississippi River. Rates are coming down and will likely continue to fall for at least the next few days.
All eyes are on China / Olympics. The skies in Beijing are still smoggy as hell, expectations point to a slowdown in industrial production, but no indication yet of any significant reduction in iron ore imports. The Chinese are good at always keeping us guessing. One important thing to point out: even if short-term sentiment is a bit iffy, medium-term sentiment is really good considering the period activity we've been seeing. Interesting side note: for the most part, there's a general consensus that dry bulk rates will trend sideways / fall for the Olympics, then rebounded significantly in the fourth quarter and approach record freight levels by the end of the year.

The interesting (and scary) thing is that pretty much everyone is saying this. Kinda makes you think. At least makes me think / wonder how we can all be right. Dry bulk doesn't normally throw fast balls right down the middle. Usually it's the curve ball hitters that excel in this market.

FFA s

Contract    Close       Current         Diff
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BDI July        9000         9000         flat
BDI Q3         9025          9025         -25
BDI Q4          9225         9200         -25

CS4 Q3           $158,744       $156,750      - $1,994
CS4 Cal 09     $128,406       $128,000      - $406
PM4 Q3            $68,850       $68,250           - $600
PM4 Cal 09      $61,581       $61,625           flat
SM6 Q3            $55,013        $54,000          - $1,013