Ton Mile Trader

BDI    824    down 12
BCI    955    down 12
BPI    848    down 38
BSI    640    up 6
BHSI 319    up 3

Commodore Landsberg (Star Wars fanatic): India Strikes Back: It’s hard getting excited about anything dry these days, but at moment I’m all CAPS and exclamation points!!! Last week, China fixed an impressive nine Supramaxes and four Panamaxes to haul iron ore from India. For those of you who don’t obsessively track Indian iron ore fixtures [I envy you] that is a lot. Today, four more vessels were fixed to take Indian ore to China – with one Supramax going for $10,000/day (average of the Supramax time charter routes is $6,692/day). This is good news – but we of course need much more of it.

It’s not surprising to see China take ore from India after the Indian government cut export taxes – what is surprising is the sheer quantity. Rough estimates point to China fixing 750,000 tons of Indian iron ore last week and another 240,000 tons today. So what’s it all mean? China could be showing they have more iron ore and steel demand than most currently believe. Or, they could just be building up stocks to ensure 2009 contract prices are secured at a hefty discount (port stockpiles fell 1.3 million tons last week to 68.8mt). Whatever is the case, Supramaxes rates are coming up and fewer vessels of that class will soon be available.

Dry Bulk FFAs
Contract      Close     Current     Diff
======================================
BDI Dec      1275        1225        -50
BDI Q1      1725        1675      -50
BDI Q2      2350        2300       -50

CS4 Q1            $11,156      $10,000    -$1,156
CS4 Cal 09        $18,216      $17,250    -$966

PM4 Q1         $11,325      $10,250    -$1075

PM4 Cal 09   $14,475      $13,500    -$975

SM6 Q1        $8,938     $8,375         -$563

SM6 Cal09      $11,891     $11,350    -$541

A bit more activity in FFAs with prices coming off further. With Lloyds reporting a Cape fixture done at $1,250/day – falling prices/hope/sentiment are to be expected. Even in light of good news on the Supra front (see above), prices on the SM6 have come off.