Ton Mile Trader

Tone:  Capes and Panamax weaker once again as levels drift towards ZERO…at ZERO we should see some support

Capes Index $5732:  Feb/Mar 9300 -150 -350/day Q2 12050 -50 -250/day  Cal12 12400 unch -250/day Cal13 14400 unch -100/day

Panamax Index $6882: Feb/mar 9400 unch -300/day Q2 10900 unch -100/day Cal12 10250 unch -50/day  cal13 11100 -50 -50/day

Smax Index  $7534: Feb/Mar 9300 unch -300/day Q2 10400 +300 unch/day  Cal12 10050 +50 -50/day cal13 10750 +100 unch/day

"With earnings season upon us, I've posted my estimates at http://www.littledief.com/estimates.asp for wider circulation of all the numbers, in case any of the TMT community is interested. It is geared at looking for trends / distortions in shippers, not the exact EPS (though nice when it happens!).

This is a hobby effort and nothing provided should be considered as investing advice and everyone should do their own research. Any estimate is based on the information known at that time, so numbers will change as conditions change.

Disclosure: I own DRYS, SB and TRMD.”

Dave reposting for Ohms

Ahoy There!

Here are the ag clips courtesy of the USDA.

Grain vessel loading activity in the U.S. Gulf is likely to increase in the near term. During the week ending January 12, 66 oceangoing grain vessels were expected to be loaded during the next 10 days—25 percent higher than the average (53 vessels) for the past eight weeks. The last time this many vessels were expected was March 3, 2011, when 76 vessels were expected to be loaded. Ocean freight rates for shipping bulk grain have remained relatively low.

As of January 13, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $51.00 per metric ton (mt), 8 percent less than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $27 per mt, 7 percent less than the previous week. Ocean rates are likely to remain low through the Chinese New Year holiday season, which is traditionally a slow period for dry bulk shipments.

Construction on the Panama Canal’s third set of locks stopped Monday when workers discontinued work to demand payment of back wages, an increase in minimum wages, and better working conditions. The expansion work, which is expected to double the canal’s capacity by late 2014, has been slowed by labor disputes in the past. The canal is a vital outlet for U.S. grain shipments to Asia.  Close to 31 million metric tons of U.S. grain exported to Asia transited the canal during fiscal year 2010.

During the week ending January 12, 37 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 26 percent from the same week last year.

Good Fortunes

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  Top & Bottom 5 Day:  EGLE @$1.21 (+14.15%), FREE @$0.433 (+11.03%), SFL @$11.37 (+10.82%) >>>NM @$3.62 (-3.21%), SHIP @$2.37 (-3.27%), GPRT @$60 (-4.21%).  This week’s leader (Eagle) is up ~ 35% since Christmas.  That would have made anyone a great Christmas gift.  Shares of EGLE traded for 89 cents apiece on December 27^th.  Last week we alerted ESEA for a short trade consideration and the shares closed the week down -2.85%.  Nothing to write home about, we will call the trade FLAT, as in no gain or loss.  If Eagle happens to make the leader board next week, you can bet we will sound the short alarm!

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 862 (-18.14%), BCI 1554 (-9.81%), BPI 1020 (-19.30%) BSI 807 (-16.89%), BHSI 485 (-9.01%).  Read these numbers with some sad Eagles song playing in the background.  Gives you the blues ya know!

The Fixtures:  Ore =16, Coal =13, T/C =76, Period =8, total =113.  The ore chores matched last week’s lethargic demand.  Volume is off around 40%, and that just kills the capes when the ore chores dry up.  The coal runs come in stronger than last week’s very good numbers, leaving us hopeful of apparent increase in average coal demand & ton/miles.  We will let you know when that happens.

            Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes:  Lake D            4-6 MOS         $13,350 vs. $6,805.

Pmax:  Kalyipso          4-6 MOS         $9,850   vs. $8,438.

Smax:  Dimi                36-41 MOS     $11,000 vs. $8,969.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =20, PostP =5, Kmax =9, Pmax =47, Smax =24, Hmax =2, Hsize =2, Bulkers =4, total =113.  The following Familiar Vessels populated the fixture reports this week.  Star Life, Ocean Spirit, Ocean Gold, Newlead Victoria, Navios Vega, Genco Rhome, Sea Moon, Kalyipso.

Ski Notes:  During the week Capesize earnings fell below the Handysize, giving the dry bulk market yet another indication of disaster.   Boomer James translates a shipping term for those readers less informed.  Kadywhompus : A phenomena that occurs in dry bulk shipping when the larger vessels become cheaper to rent compared to much smaller vessels.   So remember, sometimes size matters the most. 

Good Fortunes

Ski

Jonathan Chappell - Managing Director of Research at Evercore Partners - has released his 2012 Tanker Market Outlook. 

 Top Pick and Conviction BUY is TNK - with STNG, CPLP, DHT and VLCCF also receiving the much sought OVERWEIGHT ratings from Mr Chappell.

"...That said, we believe the risk/reward outlook is now favorable for several tanker stocks as we overlay our rate forecasts with the balance sheets, fleet employment, and dividend distribution capacity of the stocks in our coverage universe. Indeed, although we believe it is too early to escalate the risk profile of a tanker stock portfolio given the aforementioned market challenges, we believe the stocks of those companies with extensive time-charter coverage and limited-to-no debt/cash flow concerns through the first several quarters of this year, can provide investors with upside market exposure if rates turn earlier than expected, while still paying said investors to wait for the more likely 2013 recovery through a robust dividend yield supported by fixed cash flows."
NAT gets an Equalweight - and OSG and FRO were rated UNDERWEIGHT.

Ahoy There!

During the week ending January 5, 40 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, up 5 percent from the same week last year. Sixty-one vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 19 percent less than the same period last year.

During the week ending January 6, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $56 per metric ton (mt), unchanged from the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $29 per mt, 2 percent less than the previous week.

The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicates an increase for corn exports in 2011/12 compared to the December estimate. Corn exports are expected higher because of unfavorable growing conditions in South America. WASDE also indicates a decrease in soybean exports from the December projection. Johnny.Hill@ams.usda.gov

Today 5:50pm EST - Siruis/XM channel 113.  Taking Stock with Pimm Fox - a good friend of Ton Mile Trader.

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  ESEA @2.81 (+9.34%), ISH @20.71 (+7.53%), NM @3.74 (+7.47%) >>> PRGN @.652 (-5.51%), SHIP @2.45 (-7.55%), FREE @.39 (-17.02%).  We still are not sure why ISH gapped at Tuesday’s opening bell, but it helped put the company on the Top & Bottom 5 Day leader board.  For the folks who enjoy trading, we at Dry Bits alert readers too Euroseas, suggesting a possible short play.  The mixed fleet operator has enjoyed 2 consecutive weeks on the leader board. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1053 (-21.83%), BCI 1723 (-25.22%), BPI 1264 (-17.76%), BSI 971 (-12.68%), BHSI 533 (-5.33%).   Synchronized sinking!

Waving goodbye 2 your investment dollars!

The Fixtures:  Ore =16, Coal =10, T/C =92, Period =7, Grain =1, total =126.  The ore chores start out the new year with low volume and even a good week on the coal side of things cannot fill the void.  The grain fixture caught my eye.  We have 30k dwt of corn heading towards Tunisia.  The charterer is Perdue.  Could that be the same Perdue that grows my favorite chicken?  Now they are growing chickens in Africa?

            Best Done Period vs. spot

Capes:  Zong May       4-6 MOS         $14,750  vs.  $15,477.

Pmax:  Yong Jin          3-5 MOS         $13,250  vs.  $12,272.

Smax:  Star Delta        3-5 MOS         $11,000  vs.  $10,442.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =20, P/P =5, Kmax =9, Pmax =52, Smax =27, Hmax =4, Hsize =3, Bulkers =6, total =126.

Ski Notes:  The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports this week, Mendocito, Star Delta, Navios Arc, Star Borealis, Golden Future, Nord Galaxy.   The folks at Newlead Holdings LTD (NEWL) have sold the last owned bulker, therefore we discontinue our coverage.    

Good Fortunes

Looking at the earnings in the spot market since the turn of the new year we make the following observations.

Capesize (-65.56%)

Pmax (-20.33%)

Smax (-15.57%)

Hsize (-5.21%)

btw; Capes are now earning less per day than Panamax or Supramax vessels. 

Good Fortunes

Ahoy There!

Again we are in Holiday mode with no complete report, yet not to be denied we will call this Week #1.  When we look at the Baltic indices we compare end of week too end of week results when calculating gains or losses.  Since December 23^rd 2011 was the last real end of week for the Baltic we used it for the calcs.  The already low BDI dropped another... (-22.5%) twenty two and one half percent.  So we are going to skip that part also.

Way to much bad karma starting the new year. 

Top & Bottom:  GLBS @4.30 (+29.91%), SHIP @2.65 (+22.69%), ESEA @2.57 (+9.36%) >>> GPRT @66.5 (-2.24%), NM @3.45 (-2.52%), BALT @4.31 (-9.26%).

The Baltics: 

Singapore in the evening !!