Tuesday
Apr222014

Help Wanted

Tomorrow Morning I will again be on the road to Chicago.  If any of you feel inclined to post in my absence please contact me.  I know this website readers expect a diligent consistency in publication timelines.  You are like the morning news in the morning kind of crowd.   Sorry but I have no control over the scheduling and unless we could enlist a backup???

Dave 

wtsurfer@gmail.com

 

Tuesday
Apr222014

Dry Bulk Evening Report

Good Evening,

The day goes in the books as a winner for the bulkers in our coverage.  The split comes in with 17 gainers and 6 losers.  The best performers were JIN @22.80 (+14.00%) and GOGL @ 11.10 (+9.36%).  From the loser board we have today’s worst being NEWL @ 0.21 (-6.61%) and SHIP @ 1.40 (-6.67%).

We are looking to replace GNK if you have suggestions.

Tuesday
Apr222014

Midday Update

Midday Update,

We have good news today for a change and it just figures we couldn’t post until half the day is gone. 

BDI = 939 (Up 9 pts)

BCI = 1616 (+25) spot rates $9,094 up $263.

BPI = 828 (+16) spot rates $6,668 up $129.

BSI = 909 (+1) spot rates $9,503 up $7.

BHSI = 528 (-5) spot rates $7,845 down $83.

Dry FFA:  We hear from Rocco at FIS the Capes are firmer nearby while the Pmax and Smax are sporadically up and down. 

Q3-14:  Capes $24,400 (+150)

             Pmax $11,850 (+75)

            Soups $12,250 (+50)

We got loads of dry bulk scoop we hope to get out but the day is flying past.  Medical appointments scheduled every day this week up in Chicago.  The VA has no WIFI so I get limited really quick.  

Monday
Apr212014

Dry Bulk Evening Report

Good Evening,

The week starts out a winner with the split in our covered equities with fourteen gainers, one unchanged, one BK and eight losers.  The best performers were GLBS @ 3.89 (+7.16%) and EGLE @ 3.63 (+4.31%).  From the loser board we show the worst hit today being SHIP @ 1.47 (-8.70%) and NEWL @ 0.23 (-9.80%).  GNK =BK

Boomer James sure called this little EGLE run-up. 

Have a good evening.

Dave

Monday
Apr212014

At VA hospital for appointment. No chance to post

================================================================== This mobile text message is brought to you by AT&T

Saturday
Apr192014

Dry Bulk Weekly Report #16

The Baltic’s:  The numbers out of London this week are not going to make anyone too comfortable.  The BPI was the only indice able to push up rates and turn things around at least for now.  The Capes had the worst showing overall and a big portion of the BDI losses can be traced to the big girls.

BDI = 930 (-72 pts) -7.19%.

BCI =1591 (-198) -11.07%, spot rates $8,831 (-2211).

BPI = 812 (+30) +3.84%, spot rates $6,539 (+227).

BSI = 908 (-19) -2.05%, spot rates $9,496 (-200).

BHSI = 533 (-23) -4.14%), spot rates $7,928 (-354).

The Equities:  The week over week trading is scored a winner for the bulkers in our coverage.  The split comes in with 13 gainers, two unchanged and nine losers.  The best performers were SB @ 8.76 (+5.67%), BALT @ 6.42 (+5.25%) and NMM @ 19.08 (+5.12%).  From the loser board we show the worst hit this week being GOGL @ 10.15 (-6.97%), GNK @ 1.70 (-11.46%) and once again in last place NEWL @ 0.25 (-45.65%). 

The Remarks:  I was having a look at the Capesize spot rate chart that Ohms sent me and noticed that in 2010 week 15 the Capes took off gaining for 5 straight weeks peaking at that years high so historically speaking, the Capes could catch fire and we could all sleep a little easier.  Statistically the prognosis is less encouraging.  On the same chart covering three additional years we find no breakouts until the 24th week.  For what that is worth.

Happy Easter

Dave

Thursday
Apr172014

Editors Note

Ahoy There!

This is scary to see… Boomer James inspired by his Viking budro “Ohms Law” has taken an interest in some technical assessments.  He has forwarded this link to an article he found beneficial.  This is a bit disheartening watching a shoot from the hip trader like Boomer resort to research as he struggles lagging behind me in the shipping investor competition.  This is sweet!

Relative Strength Index (RSI):  Wilder/Brown & Cardwell

 http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi

Just chatted with our Senior Editor Mike Reardon who informs me we will now be receiving weekly reports beginning next week from Marc Pauchet at ACM Shipping.  Having reviewed the report for last week, I can say the report is impressive and I look forward to sharing some of Marc’s work and insight going forward.  The list of industry participants that have friendly relations with TMT has grown beyond our expectations, fueled in part by Mike’s connections and Boomer James persona. 

Those who may have noticed we have not heard from Erik Stavseth of Arctic Securities this week, I spoke with him yesterday and he is due back in the office Monday.  I worry about him when he drops off my radar. 

 

Later

Dave

Thursday
Apr172014

The Ag Update...Better than Starbucks!!!

The USDA Ag Update:

Ocean

During the week ending April 10, 50 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, 79 percent more than the same period last year. Fifty vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 43 percent more than the same period last year.  During the week ending April 11, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $50 per mt, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $27 per mt, unchanged from the previous week.

 

Barge

During the week ending April 12, barge grain movements totaled 708,070 tons—11.6 percent higher than the previous week and 109.7 percent higher than the same period last year. During the week ending April 12, 451 grain barges moved down river, up 7.6 percent from last week; 676 grain barges were unloaded in New Orleans, down 4.7 percent from the previous week.

 

Highlight

With warmer temperatures in recent weeks, improved navigation conditions have caused increases in upbound barge traffic on the Upper Mississippi River. For the week ending April 12 at Mississippi River Locks 27, 378 empty barges were upbound; most will be

loaded with grain and returned downbound for export. One month ago, the number of Locks 27 empties was 251. In addition, for the week ending April 12, 105 barges with fertilizer moved upbound; these barges could also return downbound with export grain. The downbound grain volume at Locks 27 was 424 thousand tons, the highest since mid-December 2013. 
Thursday
Apr172014

Dry Bulk Morning Report

The Panasisters remain the only gainer for the second consecutive day as the BDI and remaining indices continue the fall. 
BDI = 930 (-8 pts)

BCI = 1591 (-22) spot = $8,831 (-309).

BPI = 812 (+20) spot = $6,539 (+158).

BSI = 908 (-1) spot = $9,496 (-10)

BHSI = 533 (-3) spot = $7,928 (-53)

Dry FFA:  We hear from the crew at FIS the paper markets were firmer for the Capes while the Panasisters and Soups are flat. 

Q3-14:  Capes $24,150 (+650)

             Pmax $11,650 (-125)

             Soups $12,100 (-25)

Thursday
Apr172014

Analyst Update

Analyst Update / Gregory Lewis / Credit Suisse

Offshore Driller Q1 Playbook

Adjusting Estimates.  We have adjusted our 2014/2015 EPS estimates for the drillers based on updated rate assumptions, fleet status reports and timing…

Revisions More Down Than Up.  Post Q1 company earnings – earnings revisions for the offshore drillers have generally trended lower with ORIG (not shown as estimates fell 100% to $0.00) and RDC seeing the largest downward revisions (increased downtime primary driver)…

Earnings Surprise or Cost Management?  All drillers but ESV and SDRL posted positive earnings surprises in Q4. SDRL is on a bit of a cold streak (missed last two), while prior to the Q4 miss ESV beat prior 7 quarters. DO and ATW have beaten the last 8 consecutive quarters followed by PACD the last 6 quarters, ORIG the last 5, and RDC and NE the last 4. We think commentary (length of floater down-cycle and update on the jackup market), costs, and contracts (3 Cs) matter more than earnings (misses won’t help)…

Bear Hunting.  The last month has seen short interest in DO, RIG, and SDRL grow significantly – with both DO and RIG Short Interest Ratio up over 8 (~6 YTD).