Wednesday
Apr162014

Dry Bulk Evening Report

The trading today goes in the books as a winner for the bulkers in our coverage.  The split comes in with 19 gainers and 5 losers.  The best performers were EGLE @ 3.44 (+9.90%) and SHIP @ 1.56 (+7.62%).  That’s a pair of winners for sure.  From the loser board we show the worst hit being GNK @ 1.70 (-3.95%) and lastly we have NEWL.  Yep… yesterdays top dog up over 15% and today it gets drug out behind the woodshed and whooped @ 0.24 (-37.53%). 

Dry FFA:  We hear from Martin at FIS the paper markets mostly firmed led by the Panasisters however the Soups lost some mojo and gave back a bit before all was said and done but they still curve to the left.  Left is good, right is south of happy.

Q3-14:  Capes $23,500 (-250)

             Pmax $11,800 (+125)

            Soups $12,150 (+250)

 

Remarks:  It would seem plausible to suggest there is a bunch of folks throwing money at bulker names without ever having heard of TMT.  What would motivate somebody to buy into a surge like the one Eagle saw today on the news they released yesterday?  We are still perplexed by the liquidity in NEWL shares.  The yahoo numbers show 17,009,315 in volume today.  Who has that many shares of NEWL for real?  Nobody… chimes the data miner Boomer James.  Those shares are turning from inside out and back again.  Someone’s gonna get in trouble!

Wednesday
Apr162014

The Buddy System

Tell me the guy in front doesn’t look like Big John

Wednesday
Apr162014

Peter Sand talks China

Our Long Time Friend Peter Sand of BIMCO Talks China

Chinese GDP grew by 7.4% in Q1 from a year earlier

The world’s second largest economy rose by 7.4% in first three months of 2014 as compared to same period last year. China remains on course for a soft landing as the nation rebalances its economy from being reliant on investments and exports in the past to depend more on private domestic consumption going forward.

Such a transition involves more focus on “soft” infrastructure such as social security, education and healthcare going forward. This is likely have a slightly negative effect on shipping in the shorter term – but bring forward a more sustainable growth pattern that will benefit shipping going forward.

Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “The Chinese economy continues to move forward at a healthy level of 7.4% in the first quarter of 2014. Seen in conjunction with the mini-stimulus plan, which was presented a fortnight ago – the government seem to manage the balancing act quite well”.

Despite surprising estimates on the upside, the quarterly GDP growth level was on par with the level of Q3-2012 (7.4%), which was the weakest since Q1-2009 (6.2%). PMI figures from HSBC/Markit has weakened since October 2013 and continued to do so in March. In the meantime, the “official” PMI improved in March driven forward by larger enterprises.”

Wednesday
Apr162014

Dry Bulk Morning Report

Good Morning,

The beaten down BPI is up today and at this point, we are glad to see one standing compared to none.  The Capes nosed down hard as they cross under the 10K losing another 6.44% today.

BDI = 936 (-34 pts)

BCI = 1613 (-111) spot $9,140 (-1126)

BPI = 792 (+15) spot $6,381 (+113)

BSI = 909 (-7) spot $9,506 (-70)

BHSI = 536 (-7) spot $7,981 (-102)

Dry FFA:  The way I read the early report from FIS things looks fair in the paper world until the BCI was released.

Q3-14:   Capes $23,500 (-500)

              Pmax $11,500 (-100)

              Soups $12,100 (+100)

Remarks:  We see EGLE has now until 4/30/2014 to secure a finance agreement.  The stock is up as Boomer James told us it would.  We went out on a limb yesterday and contacted a business associate involved in recruitment of applicants for shipping jobs.  The door to my employment in this business remains closed.  I’m starting to think that something is missing from my resume besides my youth.

Tuesday
Apr152014

TMT2014 Trade Notice

Trade Alert

Boomer James Account

Cover JIN (3.91) X 200 @ 3.24 = $134.00 net prior to sales cost

Cover EGLE (3.80) X 1000 @ 3.13 = $670.00 net prior to sales cost

The account is back to all cash and documents will be updated.

Boomer will only describe the trades as poor entry points taking to long too bear fruit.  

Asked about letting EGLE off the hook when he was easily in the money Boomer is less contrite and more verbally combativive chiming off remarks less than complimentary toward stock traders whom he thinks may bid up the failing equity.  “Time and again the understanding of what should occur in shipping equities prevents shipping investors from realizing what can occur.”

Enough said about that.   Boomer with all his you know is up around $784.00 cash balance $10,784.00

Tuesday
Apr152014

Dry Bulk Evening Report

Good Evening Dry Bulk Folks,

We are getting closer to having a winning day, just not today.  The split in our covered bulkers comes in with ten gainers and fourteen losers.  The best performers were NEWL @ 0.40 (+17.65%) and PRGN @ 5.87 (+3.35%).  From the dominant loser board we show the worst hit today being GNK @ 4.32 (-4.32%) and FREE @ 1.22 (-5.43%).

Dry FFA:  Having a peak at the curves it looks like the Capes went mostly unchanged.  The Panamax curve did the best and looks up all thru the segments while the Soups had mixed results.

Q3-14:  Capes $24,000 (+500)

             Pmax $11,600 (+400)

            Soups $12,000 (+100)

Tuesday
Apr152014

IMO Update

IMO Update

The Nairobi International Convention on the Removal Wrecks will enter into force on 14 April 2015 following the deposit, on 14 April 2014, of an instrument of ratification by Denmark, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

Among several provisions, the Convention will place financial responsibility for the removal of certain hazardous wrecks on shipowners, making insurance, or some other form of financial security, compulsory.  Denmark became the 10th country to ratify the convention, thereby triggering its entry into force exactly 12 months later.

The Convention will fill a gap in the existing international legal framework by providing the first set of uniform international rules aimed at ensuring the prompt and effective removal of wrecks located beyond a country’s territorial sea. The Convention also contains a clause that enables States Parties to ‘opt in’ to apply certain provisions to their territory, including their territorial sea.

The Convention will provide a sound legal basis for States to remove, or have removed, shipwrecks that may have the potential to affect adversely the safety of lives, goods and property at sea, as well as the marine and coastal environment. It will make shipowners financially liable and require them to take out insurance or provide other financial security to cover the costs of wreck removal. It will also provide States with a right of direct action against insurers.

Tuesday
Apr152014

Analyst Report Avance Gas Holding Ltd.

Analyst Report

BB

Unreported

Avance Gas Holding Ltd.

AVANCE Prices $100MM Oslo IPO At NOK122/Share.  Before the open AGHL announced that it had successfully priced its Oslo IPO, with plans to issue ~4.9MM shares at NOK122/share (~$20.43/share - 2.4% discount to the last price for its OTC Norway listing), raising aggregate proceeds of ~NOK600MM (~$100MM) and increasing AGHL’s outstanding shares to ~35.3MM… We also note that book runners maintain a 10% shoe for 1.2MM additional shares, with the shares listing on the Oslo exchange under the ticker AVANCE…

VLGC Spot Rates Reach Multi-Year PeakAverage VLGC TCE rates recently reached a four-year peak of $1,875k/month (~$62,500/day), up over ~300% yr/yr (from ~$450k/month in 2013) as a shortage of available tonnage in the Pacific region has driven the sharp rise in spot rates (with some voyages commanding more than $100,000/day in the spot market)… We believe the jump in VLGC spot rates could generate significant value for AVANCE, with our current 2015 TCE estimate of $42,000/day (~$1,260k/month) implying ~51% upside to the pending IPO price of ~$20.43/share,..

Avance Gas Holding Ltd. (AGHL-NFF) —Outperform

Tuesday
Apr152014

Dry Bulk Morning Report

Good Morning,

The numbers out of London this morning are not going to be a lot of help getting the equities turned around.  We never can be to sure about what will or wont happen up on Wall Street. 

BDI = 970 (-19)

BCI = 1724 (-41) Average of the T/C routes $10266 (DOWN 504)

BPI = 777 (-1) Average of the T/C routes $6268 (DOWN 7)

BSI = 916 (-5) Average of the T/C routes $9576 (DOWN 50)

BHSI = 543 (-6) Average of the T/C routes $8083 (DOWN 95)

Dry FFA:  The crew at FIS tell us in the morning report that the Capes traded up with the Asian open but quickly sold off when the European bell rang.  The Panamax and Soup curves are both firmer but beginning to wane as index approaches.

Q3-14:  Capes $24,000 (+500)

             Pmax $11,500 (+300)

            Soups $12,000 (+100)

Monday
Apr142014

TMT2014 Trade Notice

Trade Alert

P.Parker

Sell SALT (p/p$9.96) @ $9.12 X 200 = (-168.00)

Sell SBLK (p/p$12.18) @ $12.29 X 163 = 17.93

Sell SBLK (p/p$15.12) @ $12.29 X 37 = (-104.71)

13 shares SBLK remain owned

cost of sales not included