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Dry Bulk

Cape rates were down about 800 to the $12-13k/day range.  The Q4 FFA was unchanged on the day at $9000.



Greg Lewis weighs in on the OPEC cut in today’s note.  He estimates the volumes discussed amount to about 20 VLCCs - or 3% of the V fleet. He points to spot players DHT, FRO and TNK as being the most vulnerable, but his note is not one of armageddon.  More along the lines of these volumes hurting at the margin - maybe a bit more than that. He also points out that “only time will tell on a production freeze or cut” and adds Iran may be able to increase on the fringes to offset production declines by other members.

Jonathan Chappell also spoke to the issue in yesterday’s note “OPEC remains important, but it’s not what it used to be.” He points out many issues including timing and duration and compliance need to be factored in and summarizes, “…it seems most likely to us that there will be little impact to VLCC demand and rates in 2017 barring an unfavorable change in global macroeconomic health.”


Dry Bulk

FFA report from FIS:

Tone:   Capes & Panamax both took another hit in afternoon with Oct printing just above 10k and q4 taking out support at 9k.  Smax light volume and touch wekaer

Capes Index $13082: Oct 10100 -300 -900/day  Nov 9100 -200 -500/day Q4 9000 -250 -650/day Q1 4350 unch -50/day Cal17 7500 unch -100/day Cal18 9100 unch -50/day Cal19 10400 unch -100/day

Panamax Index $6017: Oct 6150 -250 -450/day Nov 6500 -200 -350/day Q4 6250 -150 -350/day Q1 4800 -50 -100/day Cal17 5850 -50 -150/day Cal18 6750 unch -100/day Cal19 7350 unch -50/day

Smax Index $7062:Oct 7100 -100 -200/day Nov 7300 -50 -200/day Q4 7050 -50 -200/day Q1 5000 -150 -250/day Cal17 5950 unch -150/day Cal18 6900 -100 -100/day Cal19 7500  unch unch/day


LPG Update

It’s been a while since I last posted LPG rates.  Bottom line here is that although rates have, on agerave, moved above the $10k/day range - they haven’t moved much. VLGC rates globally sit between $10kd/ay and $15k/day. So - most VLGCs are covering OPEX, and not much more.  Too many ships, not enough cargo.


$NAP Navios Maritime Midstream Partners

$NAP Navios Maritime Midstream Partners

2016-09-2812:20 PM

The bearish thoughts on NAP were confirmed right after we opened our fat mouth and said, “Watch out for 10.50,” or some such nonsense. This little run down might take a rest around the 9.75 region. Any recovery to 11.00 - 11.25 target level seems some time away at this point.

 Previous ramblings on $NAP:

Navios Maritime Midstream Partners

2016-09-25  6:43 PM

By week’s end NAP was stamping its feet hard on the floor a couple of times. We’re still somewhat hopeful for upward motion through 11.25 - 11.45, but watching 10.50 for some bearishness; there have been a couple of pokes through that point already.


Navios Maritime Midstream PartnNAP

2016-09-20  12:51 PM

NAP has seen some flirting, if not knocking on the door, of 10.50 recently, but some recovery has been in the works over the last few days. However, a little price indecision this week suggests there’s nothing yet to push NAP back up. Anything above 11.30 - 11.40 could change our minds, though. Let’s keep an eye on that 10.50.



$CPLP Capital Product Partners

CPLP Capital Product Partners 
2016-09-28 11:45 AM
CPLP is in the process of boring us to tears with its recent price track, but perhaps that’s a good thing. A push upwards through 3.40 on the way to 3.50 could be a possibility, although we’d be suspicious of any moves taking a kick at 3.10 - 3.00.


NAT - Equity Issue

Jonathan the Gladiator Chappell weighs in on NAT’s equity issue:

Hold $12 ($13)

Equity lever finally pulled…something finally gave and it was the obvious option…One of 2 primary overhands removed…or is it?

“The press release sounds as if the underwriters purchased the entire stake (with the exception of 4.85% purchased by insiders) and that this stake will be sold into the market over time, decreasing the immediate wave of shares in the market, but extending the impact.”


Dry Bulk FFAs

Tone:  Capes physical flat leaving paper to continue to slowly trickle down with Oct trying to hold 11k into the close.  Panamax and smax supported

Capes Index $13727: Oct 10900 -200 -450/day  Nov 9600 -100 -150/day Q4 9650 -100 -100/day Q1 4400 -50 -50/day Cal17 7600 unch unch/day Cal18 9150 unch unch/day Cal19 10500 unch unch/day

Panamax Index $6008: Oct 6600 -100 -150/day Nov 6850 unch -50/day Q4 6600 -50 -100/day Q1 4900 unch -50/day Cal17 6000 unch unch/day Cal18 6850 unch unch/day Cal19 7400 unch unch/day

Smax Index $7043:Oct 7300 -150 -150/day Nov 7500 +100 +100/day Q4 7250 -50 unch/day  Q1 5250 unch +100/day Cal17 6100 -50 -50/day Cal18 7000 -50 -50/day Cal19 7500 -50 -50/day

Source: FIS


Dry Bulk - Cape Rates Turn Down

The Cape index was down about $400 today - leaving the index at roughly $14,000-14,500. With Q4 trading at 9750, seems the FFA world is not convinced rates will remain this high for the duration of Q4.

Panamxes are up $135 on the day, just short of the $6,000 mark, with Q4 trading 6700, implying mild optimism.


$SEA - Guggenheim Shipping ETF

Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA)

2016-09-24 5:34 PM
 We thought things were looking iffy around Sept 14th with SEA showing a little weakness, but so far,
 the consolidation across some shipping sectors has translated into a steadying influence on this ETF.
 The small pop up and pullback over the last few days is still within the recent range. Our pessimism through July 2016 slowly turned to optimism and behold, we are knocking around the 11.25 - 11.50 region we were hoping for back then…..even a little better. See what happens if you stop watching?

Previous scribbling about SEA ETF:

2016-07-15 10:48 PM
 Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA)
 Some consolidation and potential support seen above our hoped-for range last week. (10.30 - 10.40)


2016-07-09 2:54 PM
 Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA)
 Eyeballing 11.25 to 11.50 for any price recovery for SEA. Weakness may be present,
 although there may be support building in the 10.30 to 10.40 range.

2016-07-06 8:11 PM
 Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA)
 After some anaemic recovery in the last few months, it appears some bearishness has set in again for SEA.
 According to my fuzzy logic (apparently that’s a techie term), a failure to rise through some resistance around 12.35 has created some downward momentum. A potential consolidation around 11.70 to 11.80
 also failed and the next downside price target is around 10.25. Any consolidation in the 10.25 - 11.25 range could support an upward push through 11.50, but confidence isn’t high.